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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 May 13 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 May 2022	133	011
14 May 2022	133	010
15 May 2022	130	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels with a single low M1.3-class flare, peak time 20:19 UTC on May 12th, from behind the north-east limb and several low C-class flares. The strongest activity on the visible disc was a C4.3-class flare (peak time 18:10 UTC on May 12th), produced by active region NOAA 3010 (alpha), which rotated from over the south-east limb over the past 24h. Active region NOAA 3007 (beta-gamma-delta), now approaching the central meridian, has significantly grown in number of sun spots. Regardless of its complexity, this region has produced only low levels of activity. Active region NOAA 3006 (beta) has remained mostly stable and produced isolated low C-class flaring. Regions NOAA 3008 (beta) and 3009 (beta) have remained simple and inactive. Another simple active region has rotated over the north-east limb and remains to be further classified and numbered. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain at moderate levels with probable M-class flaring and some chances for X-class flaring.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The 10 MeV proton flux has returned to nominal levels over the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours with possible enhancements subject to any significant flaring activity and related eruptions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been mostly at background slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity showed gradual increase from 300 km/s to 383 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached XX nT with a minimum Bz of -XX nT. The B field orientation was mostly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to reflect background solar wind throughout the evening. During the night or early tomorrow the solar wind parameters are expected to register some enhancements following the anticipated arrival of a flank from the May 10th CME. A large positive polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian and the related high speed stream is expected to arrive to Earth on May 16th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and locally quiet to unsettled due to registered solar wind transients. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with the possible arrival of a flank from the May 10th CME.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 119, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 12 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	139
10cm solar flux	133
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	113 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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