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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 May 14 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 May 2022	150	007
15 May 2022	150	005
16 May 2022	150	014

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at levels levels with numerous C-class flaring from active region NOAA 3011 (beta), which rotated over the north-east limb. The strongest activity was a C3.3-class flare (peak time 18:35 UTC on May 13th). The largest active region on the visible disc NOAA 3007, currently residing on the central meridian, has decreased in complexity, not produced any significant flaring and is now classified as magnetic type beta. Active region NOAA 3006 (beta) has shown further decay and remained stable. NOAA AR 3009 has decayed into plage and NOAA AR 3008 (beta) has remained stable and inactive. A new active region NOAA 3012 (beta) has formed in the vicinity of NOAA AR 3007. It has not shown any significant flaring activity. NOAA AR 3010 has further rotated onto the visible solar disc and is now classified as magnetic type beta.’ Another region has rotated over the north-east limb close to NOAA AR 3011 and has shown some low levels of flaring activity. The X-ray flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low levels with lower chances for isolated M-class flaring. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal to low levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been mostly at background slow solar wind conditions with slightly elevated values of the interplanetary magnetic field reaching 11.8 nT. The solar wind velocity has remained in the range of 313 km/s to 383 km/s. The Bz showed a minimum of -7.3 nT. The B field orientation was mostly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to be at background solar solar wind levels, but could still register some slight enhancements following a possible arrival of a flank from the May 10th CME.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with remaining possibility for isolated active periods shown any glancing blow from the May 10th CME arrive to Earth.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 130, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 13 May 2022

Wolf number Catania	173
10cm solar flux	150
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	124 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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