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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Jul 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Jul 2022	144	007
21 Jul 2022	152	021
22 Jul 2022	160	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare observed was an C3.3-class flare, peaking at 20 July 02:15 UT, originating from NOAA AR 3058. NOAA AR 3055 has rotated off the visible solar disk. Region NOAA AR 3062 has emerged (magnetic configuration alpha). The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, where C-class flares are expected and there is a chance of M-class flares.

No Earth-directed coronal Mass Ejections have been observed over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux crossed the 1000 pfu threshold on 20 July 09:25 UT. It is expected to be about threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain in nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflect the enduring effects of the ICME, whose shock was registered on 18 July 20:33 UT. Over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field was mostly stable, fluctuating between 8 and 12 nT. At the start of the period, the Bz component remained persistently at about -10 nT, gradually increasing to positive values at the end of the 24 hours period. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle varied until about 20 July 01:00 UT, where it was predominantly on the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed slightly decreased, from 525 to 400 km/s. The values of the solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated, as we expect the high speed stream from the two negative polarity coronal holes to impact 21-22 July.

Active conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K Dourbes 4), possibly a result of the ICME, date of occurrence 15 July. Over next the 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with a chance of active conditions at the end of the period.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 143, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Jul 2022

Wolf number Catania	158
10cm solar flux	144
AK Chambon La Forêt	033
AK Wingst	031
Estimated Ap	029
Estimated international sunspot number	113 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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