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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Aug 16 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Aug 2022	132	007
17 Aug 2022	129	023
18 Aug 2022	128	014

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels. Several M-class flares occurred in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 3078 continued to develop rapidly in the south of the solar disk and was responsible for most of the M-flares, the strongest of which was an M5 flare, peaking at 07:58 UTC. NOAA AR 3079 also continued to produce C-class flares and a single low- level M-flare. NOAA AR 3081 was stable, while NOAA AR 3076 gradually decayed. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares are expected, M-class flares possible and there is chance for an X-class flare.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) observed in LASCO C2 from 05:00 UT August 15 to the south-west was associated to a large filament eruption near NOAA AR3077. This was predominantly directed to the south west but a glancing blow at Earth is possible on August 18. Another CME was observed, directed to the south from 02:00 UT on August 16, associated with a flare and filament eruption around NOAA AR 3078. This CME is being analysed further.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was above the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to be above the threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels.

The solar wind speed decreased from 590 to 345 km/s, while the interplanetary magnetic field strength ranged between 0 and 5nT. The magnetic field orientation showed mostly a connection to a positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to reflect slow solar wind conditions on August 16. From August 17, the solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become enhanced, due to the combination of effects from the arrival of the CME of August 14 and the high-speed stream associated with a large negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on August 14.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (local K Dourbes 1-3 and NOAA Kp 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 16. Active to minor storm conditions are expected from August 17 due to a combination of a CME arrival and high-speed stream effects.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 136, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	117 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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