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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Aug 27 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Aug 2022	119	016
28 Aug 2022	125	024
29 Aug 2022	122	016

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at high levels over the past 24 hours, with numerous C and M-class flares originating from NOAA ARs 3088 and 3089. NOAA AR 3089 was the place of origin of an M5.3-class flare, peak time 26 August 12:31 UTC, the one with the largest X-ray output. NOAA AR 3089 has grown in mgnetic complexity over the past 24 hours, while NOAA AR 3088 has been particularly active. For the next 24 hours, M-class flares are expected while X-class flares are possible.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was detected by the SIDC CACTus software on 26 August 10:24 UTC on the western limb. This is now believed to have been a backsided event. Another western CMe was registered oat 26 August 13:36 UTC, which was preceded by a M3.6-class flare from NOAA AR 3088 13;17 UTC. There is a very low confidence this CME originated from NOAA AR 3088 and is mostly suspcte to be backsided. A third western CME was registered on 27 August 02:12 UTC, accompanied by radio emissions. This was followed by a M4.8-class flare 02:40 UTC from NOAA AR 2088. Possible glancing blow cannot be excluded for late 28 August.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux started increasing from background levels on 27 August 06:30 UTC, crossing the 10 pfu mark at 11:53 UTC. This could be related to the CME of 27 august 02:12 UTC. The proton flux is expected to be elevated the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was about the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be about threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. It is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

An ICME arrival can be seen in the solar wind parameters about 27 August 08:36 UTC. The origin of this ICME is presently not clear. The solar wind magnetic field values reached 14 nT, while Bz values dropped to -11 nT. The solar wind speed reached 375 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly on the negative sector (towards the Sun). Over the next 24 hours, the ICME influences are expected to continue.

Active conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp 4) as a response to ICME arrival. Over next the 24 hours, unsettled to active conditions can be expected, with a chance of a minor storm event.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 099, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Aug 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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