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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Sep 23 1336 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
23 Sep 2022	139	024
24 Sep 2022	139	022
25 Sep 2022	139	017

Bulletin

Several C flares occurred over the period, most from both Catania group 45 (NOAA active region 3109) which emerged near the central of the disc yesterday and from Catania group 47 (NOAA active region 3107). But the strongest flare peaked at C7.2 level at 11:33 UCT from Catania group 48 which has just turned onto the disc in the East. Catania groups 47, 42 and 45 (NOAA active regions 3107, 3105 and 3109) grew and consolidated. Further C-class flaring is expected with a chance for an M class flare as well.

From around 9:24UTC September 22 there is a CME visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 data propagating towards the West with an angular extent of around 130 degrees. It is faint and slow and was not picked up by the CACTus tool. Around the same time some AIA EUV images show some slow and dimmings and brightenings around the center of the disc South of Catania group 45 (NOAA active region 3109). It is not very clear though if they are definitely related and it remains possible that the CME is rather backward. Further analysis will be conducted. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained just slightly enhanced but well below minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced, but below the radiation storm thresholds over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

An equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity has crossed the central meridian September 19. We are expecting to see its associated high speed stream in in situ Solar wind conditions later today. A low latitude extension of the southern polar coronal hole is transiting the central meridian and may influence solar wind starting from around noon September 26.

Solar wind conditions showed the passage of a transient. Interplanetary magnetic field suddenly jumped around 21UTC to a magnitude of 8nT. The magnetic field reached a maximum of over 10nT but is now back at a nominal 5nT. While firmly connected to positive sector (field away from the Sun), the north-south component of the magnetic field evolved steadily during the passage of the transient evolving from from positive to negative and reaching a maximum southward value of Bz=-7.6. Solar wind speed hovered around 400km/s with a maximum of 450km/s. Later today an increase in Solar wind speed is expected leading up to the onset of the high speed stream associated to the positive polarity coronal hole that transited the central meridian on September 19.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to evolve into quiet to active with also a possibility for minor geomagnetic storm episodes in association to the expected high speed stream solar wind conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 22 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	105 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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