Перегляд архіву четвер, 3 листопада 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Nov 03 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Nov 2022	130	016
04 Nov 2022	130	014
05 Nov 2022	131	004

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with isolated C-class flaring from the largest region on the disc, NOAA AR 3135 (beta), as well as from the rapidly developing NOAA AR 3136 (beta). The other large active region on the visible disk, NOAA AR 3131 (beta), has produced very low levels of activity. The remaining sunspot groups have remained stable and inactive. The flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours.

A C1.4-flare from NOAA 3136 (beta) with peak time at 07:23 UTC on Nov 3rd has produced a large on-disk dimming, but no resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) is currently visible in the available coronagraph imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has oscillated around the1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to cross the 1000 pfu threshold again over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence has been at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered the arrival of another high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 416 km/s to 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum value of 10.7 nT with a minimum Bz of -9.1 nT. The magnetic field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the continuous influence of the HSS.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quiet to unsettled and globally quiet to active with NOAA Kp index reaching 4. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with some chances for isolated minor storms.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 069, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	141
10cm solar flux	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	087 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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