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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Nov 04 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Nov 2022	126	015
05 Nov 2022	126	015
06 Nov 2022	126	006

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels with two C-class flares originating from a new region on the north- east limb. The largest flare was a gradual C5.6-class, peak time 07:44 UTC on Nov 4th. The largest region on the visible disc, NOAA 3135 (beta) has remained stable and inactive. The second large active region, NOAA 3131 (alpha) continued to produce very low levels of activity. The new region in the north-eastern quadrant, NOAA 3137 (beta), has increased its magnetic complexity, but its activity remained at very low levels, together with the activity of its neighbouring region, NOAA 3139 (beta). A new region is rotating from behind the north-east limb and is expected to produce low to moderate levels of activity. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at low levels with some chances for isolated M-class flaring.

The coronal mass ejection (CME) resulting from the C1.4-flare, peak time at 07:23 UTC on Nov 3rd, which produced a large on-disk dimming, is determined to miss the Earth. A large filament erupted in the south-east quadrant over the night and the resulting CME is to be further analysed, but its trajectory appears to miss the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has oscillated around the1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to be above the 1000 pfu threshold for extended periods of time over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained under the influence of a high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind velocity was in the range of 461 km/s to 638 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field remained elevated with a maximum value of 10.6 nT with the Bz component was mostly negative with a minimum value of -10.5 nT. The magnetic field remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the continuous influence of the HSS and follow a slow decline towards slow solar wind conditions on Nov 5th and Nov 6th.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally unsettled to active and globally reached minor storm levels with NOAA Kp index equal to 5 between 12:00 UTC and 18:00 UTC on Nov 3rd. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with some chances for isolated minor storms.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 090, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Nov 2022

Wolf number Catania	072
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	026
Estimated Ap	029
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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