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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Dec 27 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Dec 2022	141	019
28 Dec 2022	141	019
29 Dec 2022	141	031

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached moderate levels. Two M flares occurred, both from the new region in the northeast, NOAA active region 3176: an M2 flare peaking at 00:54UTC and an M1 flare peaking at 8:15UTC. NOAA region 3176 had just turned onto the disc but appeared to be emerging relatively quickly. It is currently not growing as quickly anymore and appears as a moderate sized bipolar region. Further flaring originated from NOAA active region 3169, as expected, but was limited to C-class flaring. The other regions on disc were stable or in decay. Some further active regions behind the east limb seem to be approaching the visible disc. Flaring at C level is expected, with still a chance for M class flaring both from NOAA active regions 3169 and 3176.

A filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant is observed on December 26 around 11UTC. The associated CME appears in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data around 12:48UTC. It is too narrow and too far off the Sun-Earth line to influence Earth. Another filament eruption occurred this morning in the southwestern quadrant at 8:38UTC. We are awaiting corresponding coronagraph data for further analysis, but it seems unlikely that the event is Earth-directed. No other new Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux dipped below the 1000 pfu threshold at the start of the period. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

A positive polarity coronal hole in the Northern hemisphere is currently transiting the central meridian and may influence solar wind conditions starting late December 28, early December 29.

Solar wind conditions remained perturbed. Solar wind speed decreased but remained above 500km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field remained at around 7-8nT, with extensive periods of pronounced southward orientation. The orientation of the magnetic field showed connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun) most of the period. Solar wind conditions are expected to start to ease down. By late December 28 or early December 19 a new high speed stream is expected to set in.

Geomagnetic conditions reached active to moderate storm levels (NOAA Kp 2-5 and local K Dourbes 1-5). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 096, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	036
AK Wingst	026
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	117 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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