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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2022 Dec 28 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Dec 2022	145	008
29 Dec 2022	145	022
30 Dec 2022	145	029

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached again moderate levels with Catania group 23 (NOAA active region 3169) releasing another M1.2 flare peaking at 16:26UTC. Further C flares were recorded originating from that region as well as from Catania group 31 (NOAA active region 3176) and from Catania group 32 which just rotated onto the disc in the southeast. Catania group 23 (NOAA active region 3169) seems to have somewhat simplified. The older regions on disc are all in decay, while the region numbered yesterday in the north-east, Catania group 31 (NOAA active region 3176) has grown. Apart from Catania group 32 which rotated onto the disc, another new region seems to be emerging on the disc around S03W49, and another region is expected to rotate onto the disc in the north-east. Flaring at C level is expected, with still a chance for isolated M class flaring.

No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached over the 1000 pfu threshold and may do so again today. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

A positive polarity coronal hole in the Northern hemisphere has transited the central meridian and may influence solar wind conditions starting late tomorrow December 29.

We are still experiencing a fast solar wind regime while the recorded magnetic field perturbations have now passed during the period. Solar wind speed was in the 500-550km/s range. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field gradually decreased from 7.5nT to around 5nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was pronounced Southward at the start of the period (Bz down to -7nT). The magnetic field showed connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun) throughout the period. Solar wind conditions are expected to decrease but a new enhancement is due late December 29 or December 30 due to a high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole in the north.

Geomagnetic conditions were active (NOAA Kp 4) and reached minor storm levels locally (local K Dourbes 5) at the start of the period, but eased to quiet at the end to the period (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are initially expected to be quiet to unsettled, with from tomorrow chances increasing for renewed enhancements to active conditions and later possibly minor storms with the new high speed stream solar wind conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	087
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	029
Estimated Ap	031
Estimated international sunspot number	096 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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