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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jan 09 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Jan 2023	182	003
10 Jan 2023	187	015
11 Jan 2023	185	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels with four low M-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. Three of them with peak times 15:07 UTC and 19:11 UTC on Jan 8th and 01:02 UTC on Jan 9th were produced by NOAA AR 3184, which has further rotated onto the solar disc from the east limb and is continuously producing background C-class flaring. An M2.1-class flare, peak time 09:01 UTC on Jan 9th was produced by NOAA AR 3181 (beta-delta), which has undergone slight growth and increase of trailing spots. The largest and most complex active region NOAA 3182 (beta-delta-gamma) has significantly grown in area and produced only isolated C-class flaring. NOAA AR 3180 was stable and quiet. NOAA AR 3177 (alpha) has further decayed, as well as NOAA AR 3183 (beta). A new simple active region has emerged around E10N20, currently quiet. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to continue at background C-class flaring with high chances for M-class flares and increasing chances for an isolated X-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The proton flux at STEREO-A is slightly enhanced by remains under event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been indicative of mostly slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity has varied around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was below 6.5 nT with a minimum Bz of -5.7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are expected to be slightly enhanced due to a forecasted mild high speed stream arrival.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled and are expected to remain so over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active periods on Jan 10th.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 150, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	137 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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