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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jan 10 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jan 2023	190	010
11 Jan 2023	188	007
12 Jan 2023	188	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached high levels in the past 24 hours with eight active regions on the visible solar disk. An X1.9-class flare with start time 18:37 UTC, end time 18:57 UTC and peak time 18:50 UTC on Jan 9th was produced by NOAA AR 3184 (beta-gamma) which has further rotated onto the disc. This region has produced also multiple C- and several low M-class flares. An M5.1-class flare, peak time 00:16 UTC on Jan 10th was produced by an un-numbered returning active region from the north-east limb. This region is continuously producing background C-class flaring and has high probability of producing more M-class flares in the next 24 hours. The largest and more complex active regions remain NOAA AR 3181 (beta- gamma-delta), which has significantly evolved producing a number of C- and isolated M-class flaring, and NOAA AR 3182 (beta-gamma-detla), which has been mostly quiet. NOAA AR 3180 (alpha), NOAA AR 3183 (beta) and the new active region is the north-east, NOAA 3185 (beta), have been quiet. The solar flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to be at moderate levels with continuous C-class flaring, likely M-class flares and remaining chances for an isolated X-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The 10 MeV GOES protons flux was slight elevated over last night, remaining well under radiation storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours with possible further enhancements subject to flaring activity and related solar eruptions. The proton flux at STEREO-A remained slightly enhanced but under event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have been indicative of slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity was under 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 8.9 nT with a minimum Bz of -5.97 nT. The B field was entirely in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours are expected to be slightly enhanced later today due to a forecasted mild high speed stream arrival.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet and are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours with minor chances for isolated active periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 193, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	191
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	146 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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