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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jan 16 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Jan 2023	232	020
17 Jan 2023	235	021
18 Jan 2023	237	026

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with one M-class flare and several C-class flares being detected. The largest flare was a M4.9 flare, peaking at 14:31 UT on Jan 15, associated with active region NOAA 3190. Active regions NOAA 3189, that decayed into a plage region, and NOAA 3185 will rotate over the west solar limb in the next hours. Active regions NOAA 3191 and 3192 became magnetically more complex (from beta to beta-gamma class) and produced several C-class flares in the last 24 hours. Active region NOAA 3186 remains the most complex (beta-gamma-delta class) region but was inactive in the last 24 hours, together with NOAA 3184, 3188, 3193, 3194. The solar flaring activity is expected to continue at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely isolated M-class flares and a chance for X-class flares.

A slow south-east coronal mass ejection (CME) related to the M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3190 was detected in LASCO C2 imagery at 16:36 UT on Jan 15. The eruption is not likely to have an Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) continued to be elevated, that might be associated with an early arrival of the expected HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole or with an ICME, more information will be given as more data becomes available. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 440 km/s to 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field rose to 14 nT at around 23 UT on 15 Jan, decreasing after to 8 nT. The magnetic field remained predominantly in the negative sector (field towards the Sun) until 23:00 UT on 15 Jan. On Jan 16 the orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) with short deviations into the negative sector. The solar wind parameters are expected to be elevated over the next days due to the expected arrival of the HSS associated with the positive polarity coronal holes on Jan 17 and Jan 18.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active over Belgium and globally reached an isolated minor storm level during 21:00 UT – 24:00 on Jan 15 in response to the long period of negative Bz. The geomagnetic conditions over the next 24 hours are expected to be quiet to active with remaining small chance of reaching isolated minor storms levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 201, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	234
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	026
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	196 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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