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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jan 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jan 2023	233	011
18 Jan 2023	235	021
19 Jan 2023	233	011

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at low level with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C9.4 flare, peaking at 00:13UTC on Jan 17 associated with the NOAA AR 3192 (beta-gamma class). The X-ray flux background has remained at the C level. Active region NOAA 3190, that gained complexity from beta to beta-gamma- delta class, is the most complex region but was inactive in the last 24 hours, together with NOAA ARs 3182, 3186, 3188, 3191 and 3194. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with remaining likely isolated M-class flaring and minor chances for an X-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours but could become enhanced over the next 24 hours with chances of reaching minor radiation storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed showed a gradually decreasing trend, decreasing from 500 km/s to values around 450 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained about 4 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). Two positive polarity coronal holes have crossed the central meridian on Jan 15, and high speed stream emanating from them is expected to arrive to Earth on Jan 17 and Jan 18, which would likely cause further enhanced solar wind conditions.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during next hours until the arrival of the expected HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 185, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	228
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	199 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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