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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Mar 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Mar 2023	172	005
12 Mar 2023	164	004
13 Mar 2023	160	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was frequent but at low level during the last 24 hours. Almost all of the flaring activity, including the brightest flare of the last 24 hours that was emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3245 (magnetic class Beta, Catania group 10) today 01:03 UT. As all the big AR have now lost a significant portion of their magnetic configuration, only C-class activity is very likely and there is only a small chance of an isolated M-class flare.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial halo CME automatically detected by CACTUS yesterday 17:24 UT is judged to be a back-sided event.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is below the 1000 pfu since yesterday 18:00 UT and is expected to remain below the alert level for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at low levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions feature a slow SW regime. The SW speed fluctuated between 370 and 470 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field (Bt) gradually dropped from 7 to 5 nT, while its North-South (Bz) component fluctuated between -7 and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun over the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp and K Doubres 1-3). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet in the next 24 hours since no significant change to the SW is expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 153, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	140 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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