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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 07 1302 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 May 2023	152	017
08 May 2023	152	017
09 May 2023	152	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C4.7-class flare and was produced yesterday on May 06, peaking at 21:57 UTC, by NOAA Active Regions 3299 located in -08 degree latitude and -42 degree longitude. This flare was associated with a coronal dimming. However no clear coronal mass ejection could be observed. The flaring activity is expected to remain low to moderate with possible M-class flare and a small chance of X-class flare.

Many coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. However, no clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at the background levels over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain at that level over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The influence of the solar wind streams associated to the negative polarity coronal hole has decreased to return to a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 530 km/s to 440 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic showed the values below 6.0 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between -3.1 nT and 4.7 nT. The solar wind conditions near Earth is expected to remain within the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some very short periods of unsettle conditions observed by the local stations (NOAA-Kp: 0 to 2, and K-BEL: 0 to 3). For the next 24 hours,the geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet with possible short periods of unsettle conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 125, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 06 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	032
Estimated Ap	033
Estimated international sunspot number	117 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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