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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 08 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
08 May 2023	158	016
09 May 2023	159	011
10 May 2023	160	006

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.6 flare, peaking at 23:23 UTC May 07. This was associated with NOAA AR 3296, which produced most of the flaring activity over the period. NOAA AR 3296 also exhibited some flux emergence. NOAA ARs 3293, 3297, 3298 and 3299 were mostly quiet and stable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery around 23:25 UTC on May 07. The CME was driven by a long-duration M1 flare from NOAA AR 3296 (beta), with peak time 22:34 UTC, located near the central meridian. The initial estimated plane of sky velocity of the CME is around 600 km/s and preliminary analysis suggests an estimated arrival at Earth on May 11. A full analysis is ongoing.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began to gradually increase during the past 24 hours and approached near to the 10pfu threshold. It is expected that the proton flux exceeds the 10pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ICME and ongoing coronal hole influences. The solar wind speed varied between 400 and 550 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field increased at the start of the period to a maximum value of 19nT around 15 UTC, before gradually decreasing. Bz had a minimum value of -14nT around 00:00 UTC. The interplanetary magnetic field is expected to remain enhanced on May 08 due to the ongoing ICME influence. From May 11 another ICME is predicted to impact the Earth environment.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels locally (local K Belgium) and minor storm levels globally (NOAA KP = 5). Quit to unsettled conditions are expected with isolated active conditions likely on May 08 due to ongoing coupled CME and coronal hole influences.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 129, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 07 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	129 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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