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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 May 09 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 May 2023	177	013
10 May 2023	180	018
11 May 2023	182	034

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M6.5 flare, peaking at 03:54 UTC May 09. This flare was associated with a Type II radio burst and originated from NOAA AR 3296 which also produced multiple lower level M-class flare, including an M2.3 peaking at 20:25 UTC May 08 and another M2.3 at 10:17 UTC May 09. NOAA AR 3296 and 3297 remain the most complex regions on disk. A new region began to emerge near the central meridian (N10W10) and has been numbered as NOAA AR3300. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

The halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was reported yesterday, observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery from around 23:25 UTC on May 07, is expected to have an Earth directed component with a predicted arrival time late on May 10 to early on May 11. Further on disk indications of eruptions were observed the last 24 hours, including an eruption associated with the M2.3 flare from NOAA AR 3296 on May 08 and a filament eruption from the south east quadrant from 00:17 UTC on May 09. The coronagraph signatures during this time are being analysed to see if there is an Earth directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10pfu threshold from 12:40 UTC on May 08 and remained above this threshold for the rest of the period. It is expected that the proton flux gradually decreases on May 09 to below this threshold but will remain elevated over the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind conditions (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected ongoing waning ICME and coronal hole influences. The solar wind speed decreased between from 550 to 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 and 8nT. Bz had a minimum value of -7nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to gradually decrease on May 09. From late on May 10 another ICME is predicted to impact the Earth environment.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels (local K Belgium and NOAA KP = 4). Unsettled conditions with possible active intervals are expected on May 09 and the start of May 10. Minor to moderate storm conditions are expected from late on May 10, due to the expected arrival of the CME from May 07.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 180, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 08 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	129 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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