Перегляд архіву вівторок, 11 липня 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jul 11 1304 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jul 2023	190	011
12 Jul 2023	190	012
13 Jul 2023	188	026

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring and an impulsive M1.5-flare, start time 22:06 UTC, peak time 22:18 UTC and end time 22:29 UTC on July 10th, from the region near NOAA AR 3366 (beta) and plage region NOAA 3358. This area continued to produce multiple C-class flaring. There are fourteen active regions on the visible solar disc. Two new regions are now numbered near the south-east limb, namely NOAA AR 3370 (beta) and NOAA AR 3371 (alpha), but have remained mostly quiet. A new unnumbered region is visible in the north-west and has produced multiple low levels flaring activity, including an impulsive C8.0-flare with peak time 02:14 UTC on July 11th. The largest active region on the visible disc, NOAA 3363 (beta) has exhibited significant growth and some further development, producing only isolated C-class flaring. The second largest and most complex region on the visible disc, NOAA 3361 (beta-gamma-delta) exhibited only isolated low levels of activity. NOAA AR 3367 (beta-gamma) has increased its magnetic complexity and NOAA AR 3368 (beta) exhibited some growth. Both regions remained mostly quiet. The remaining active regions have been relatively simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with probable isolated M-class flaring and some chances for isolated X-class flaring mostly from NOAA AR 3361.

Корональні викиди маси

A fast partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 04:00 UTC on July 10th (mind the corrected date-time of the CME, which was mistyped in the ursigram of July 10th). The CME has estimated projected velocity around 1000 km/s, has a related type II radio burst and was associated to the M2.4-flaring from NOAA AR 3366. The bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a glancing blow is expected in the UTC evening of July 12th. A full halo CME was observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 12:00 UTC on July 10th with a related type II radio burst, but is judged aback-sided event with no expected impact at Earth. Yet another northward partial halo CME is visible in the coronagraph imagery at 18:00 UTC, but shows no on- disc signatures and is deemed back-sided with no expected impact on Earth. A filament has erupted near NOAA AR 3363 (beta) the UTC morning on July 11th. Further coronagraph data is awaited to judge any possible Earth- directed ejecta. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole has crossed the central meridian on July 10th. An associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth as early as July 13th.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered nominal slow solar wind conditions with current solar wind velocity close to 300 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.9 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels until the UTC evening of July 12th and are expected to register some enhancements after due to a glancing blow ICME arrival.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail until the UTC evening of July 12th when active conditions with chances for isolated minor storms are expected. Isolated moderate storms are possible on July 13th and July 14th with expected high speed stream arrival from a negative polarity coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed declining enhancements in response to the M2.4 flaring and related fast coronal mass ejection on July 10th. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remains at nominal levels and is expected to continue so over the next days, pending no new strong eruptive on-disc activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has briefly reached the 1000 pfu threshold, but has significantly decreased since 05:00 UTC on July 11th. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be mostly below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours and below the threshold in the upcoming days with the expected glancing blow arrival in the UTC evening of July 12th. The 24h electron fluence was at the border line between nominal and moderate levels and is expected to decrease to nominal levels over the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 213, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	185
10cm solar flux	191
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	194 - Based on 31 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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