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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Jul 10 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jul 2023	175	006
11 Jul 2023	175	006
12 Jul 2023	175	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with background C-class flaring and an M2.4-flare, start time 03:29 UTC, peak time 03:55 UTC and end time 04:22 UTC on July 10th, from active region NOAA 3366 (beta). The region previously produced multiple C-class flares, including an impulsive C6.8-flare, peak time 23:20 UTC on July 9th and continuous to exhibit low levels of flaring activity. There are twelve active regions on the visible solar disc, including an unnumbered active region (beta) near S15E70. The largest active region, NOAA 3363 (alpha), produced only an isolated C0class flaring over the UTC night and has decreased now its magnetic complexity. The second largest and most complex region on the visible disc, NOAA 3361 (beta-gamma-delta), has increased its magnetic complexity, but produced only an isolated impulsive C9.4-flare with peak time 01:58 UTC on July 10th. Occasional C-class flaring was produced by NOAA AR 3359 (beta), which exhibited some decay, by the newly numbered NOAA AR 3368 (beta), as well as by NOAA AR 3367 (beta), which exhibited some growth. The remaining active regions have been relatively simple and inactive. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the coming days with probable M-class flaring and some chances for isolated X-class flaring from NOAA AR 3361.

Корональні викиди маси

A fast partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 00:12 UTC on May 22nd. The CME has estimated projected velocity around 1000 km/s and is related to the M-class flaring from NOAA AR 3366. Type II radio emission was detected at 03:41 UTC during the flaring activity. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, preliminary analysis suggests that a glancing blow could be expected at Earth in the UTC afternoon of July 12th. Further analysis is ongoing to better determine the CME direction of propagation and expected impacts at Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

Coronal holes: A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian. An associated high speed stream is expected to arrive at Earth as early as July 13th.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered nominal slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity was below 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak with a maximum value of 6.6 nT and a minimum Bz of -3.7 nT. The B field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels over the next 48 hours and could register possible enhancements after in case of a glancing blow ICME arrival.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail until July 12th. Quiet to active conditions with chances for isolated minor storms could be expected late UTC on July 12th should a potential glancing blow from the partial halo CME on July 10th reach the Earth.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux showed some minor enhancements in response to the M-class flaring and related fast coronal mass ejection. Despite these enhancements, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was approaching the 1000 pfu threshold, but remained below it, while the greater than 2 MeV GOES 18 electron flux has briefly exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold around 21 UTC on July 9th. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be remain close to 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours and could cross in again the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next day and could increase to moderate levels after.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 193, based on 24 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jul 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	179
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	181 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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