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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Aug 06 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Aug 2023	177	014
07 Aug 2023	177	012
08 Aug 2023	176	022

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was high during the last 24 hours, with a X1.6 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 which peaked at 22:21 UTC on Aug 05. During the flare, the source region (AR 3386) of the flare had beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Several C-class flares ranging from C2 to C6 were also produced in the last 24 hours: the brightest C6.8 class flare was produced NOAA Active Region (AR) 3387. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with a high probability of several C-class flares, one or two M-class flares, and small chance for an X-ray flare.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour. Among the observed CMEs, one partial halo CME was observed at 22:36 UTC (as detected by Cactus tool) on Aug 05. It is associated with a GOES X1.6 flare produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 that peaked at 22:21 UTC and a Type II radio burst at 22:15 UTC on Aug 05. However, no Earth- directed components were identified.

Сонячний вітер

Earth is presently within the slow solar regime, with speed ranging from 290 km/s to 550 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) is ranging from -6 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field is ranging from 3 nT to 8 nT. Possible minor enhancements in solar wind parameters due to any remnants from coronal mass ejection (CME) which was observed on Aug 02 arrives at Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to Minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 5). The geomagnetic condition is expected to be quiet unless any remnants from coronal mass ejection (CME) that was observed on Aug 02 arrives at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The 10 MeV proton flux started to increase around 8:30 UTC on Aug 05, after the GOES M1.6 flare from NOAA Region (AR) 3386 which peaked at 7:22 UTC on Aug 05. It crossed the 10 pfu threshold level at 11:00 UTC on Aug 05 and dropped below the threshold level for a shorter interval at 22:30 UTC on Aug 05. It again started to increase and crossed the threshold at 23:15 UTC, after the GOES X1.6 flare produced by NOAA AR 3386 which peaked at 22:21 UTC on Aug 05. It finally dropped below the threshold level at 5:45 UTC today. It is expected to remain below the threshold level in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at moderate to high level. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	030
Estimated international sunspot number	123 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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