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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Sep 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Sep 2023	138	023
03 Sep 2023	136	026
04 Sep 2023	136	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a long duration M3.4 flare, peaking at 07:12 on Sept 02, associated with NOAA AR 3413, which is now approaching the west limb. Low flaring activity was also produced by unspotted region near S21E45. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A fast partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at around 04:17 UTC on Sept 01st. The CME was driven by a long-duration M1.2 flare from NOAA AR 3413 (beta), peak time - 03:51 UTC. The CME is directed to the north-west and is estimated to give a glancing blow to Earth's environment on September 03. Another CME, directed towards the south-east, was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 21:36 UTC on Sept 01, likely related to the C7.4 flare from S21E45. Additionally, a CME, directed towards the south-west, was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 07:24 UTC on Sept 02, possibly driven by a long- durational M3.4 flare from NOAA AR 3413. Full analysis is ongoing, and more details will be provided later. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Корональні діри

A positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere transited the central meridian today.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind conditions reflected the ongoing influence of the positive polarity CH high-speed stream (HSS). The solar wind speed increased from 400 to 560 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude decreased from 11 to 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -9 nT and 6 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated for the next days due to the ongoing HSS influence, with a further enhancement possible on Sept 02 – Sept 03 due to the predicted arrival of CMEs.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to active (NOAA-Kp=1-4) with a single minor storm registered globally (NOAA-Kp=5) during the interval 06-09 UTC on Sept 2nd. Locally only quiet to active (K-Bel=1-4) conditions were observed over Belgium. Predominantly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with a chance for isolated minor or moderate storm periods due to influence of the HSS and a predicted arrival of CMEs.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux displayed a gradually decreasing trend over the last 24 hours and is now below the 10pfu threshold since around 20:10 UTC Sept 01. It is expected that the proton flux will remaine elevated but below the threshold for the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 090, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	089 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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