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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Aug 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Aug 2023	150	014
20 Aug 2023	148	009
21 Aug 2023	146	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was an impulsive C5.8 flare peaking at 06:48 UTC on August 19, associated with NOAA AR3406. NOAA AR 3409 was also active, producing minor C-class flares. A new region rotated over the north-east limb, numbered NOAA AR3412. This and the remaining regions were mostly stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations

Корональні діри

A small negative polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere began to traverse the central meridian on August 18.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind parameters reflected the ongoing weak negative polarity high speed stream influence. The interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 11nT to near 3nT. Bz had a minimum value of -7nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 450km/s and 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on August 19, while the Earth remains under the influence for the high- speed stream, slowly returning to nominal conditions on August 20.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA KP 1-3) with active intervals locally (K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels, with active periods possible on August 19 due to the ongoing high speed stream influence.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 133, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	151
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	125 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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