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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Aug 20 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
20 Aug 2023148015
21 Aug 2023146011
22 Aug 2023145007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.7 flare peaking at 06:26 UTC on August 20, associated with NOAA AR3409. NOAA AR3409 has, however, decayed significantly over the period. NOAA AR 3403 also produced low C-class flares. The remaining regions were mostly stable or in decay and were quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

There were no Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind parameters showed further enhancement. The interplanetary magnetic field increased from 3 nT to near 10nT. Bz had a minimum value of -6 nT. The solar wind speed increased further from 450km/s to 690 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on August 20 and 21, while the Earth remains under the influence for the high-speed stream, slowly returning to nominal conditions from on August 22.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3, K Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled levels, with isolated active periods possible on August 20 due to the ongoing high speed stream influence.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold on August 20 and is likely to increase on August 21 and 22. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 107, based on 25 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux151
AK Chambon La Forêt019
AK Wingst012
Estimated Ap010
Estimated international sunspot number134 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxКінецьLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
Немає

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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