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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Sep 09 1259 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Sep 2023	163	010
10 Sep 2023	160	007
11 Sep 2023	155	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at the C-class level. The strongest reported flare was C8.4 flare (peak peaked at 01:20 UT) observed on September 09. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 41 (NOAA AR 3421) which somewhat decreased in the complexity of its photospheric mangetic field and it has presently beta configuration. However, this active region was during last 24 hours source of the majority of flaring activity. Presently the most complex active region observed on the visible side of the Sun is Catania sunspot group 48 (NOAA AR 3425) which has beta gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field and is expected to be source of the flaring activity in the coming hours. We expect C-class flares and also isolated M-class flares in the following hours.

Корональні викиди маси

The newly available coronagraph data show two halo CMEs, and one partial halo CME. All three CMEs seemed to have source regions at the back side of the Sun as seen from Earth, and they are therefore not expected to arrive to Earth.

The first halo CME was faint and slow and was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 13:25 UT on September 07, the second halo CME was much brighter and it was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field at 11:36 UT on September 08. From the shape of the CMEs it looks like they originated from the same, behind the West solar limb active region. The bright partial halo CME with the angular width of about 130 degrees was first observed (above the East solar limb) in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at about 02:24 UT on September 08.

During last 24 hours there were no Earth directed CME observed in available data.

Сонячний вітер

Earth is still inside the slow solar wind with the solar wind plasma characteristics fluctuating very little during the last 24 hours. The solar wind velocity remained to be about 350 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 5 nT.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels and we do not expect significant change in the coming hours. As the Catania sunspot group 41 (NOAA AR 3421) is close to the West solar limb, the strong flaring activity could be associated with the particle event.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has continue to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level. We do not expect significant change in these parameters in the coming hours.agnetic conditions were unsettled to quiet, and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 144, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	126 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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