Випущено: 2023 Sep 10 1244 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
10 Sep 2023 | 160 | 006 |
11 Sep 2023 | 156 | 007 |
12 Sep 2023 | 150 | 007 |
During last 24 hours solar flaring activity has decreased and only a few C-class flares were reported. The strongest reported flare was GOES C8.3 flare which peaked at 01:55 UT on September 10. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 44 (NOAA AR 3423) which somewhat decreased in the complexity of its photospheric magnetic field and it has presently beta configuration. The EUV observations show that the flare was associated with the eruption, but as the coronagraph data are not yet available it is not possible to estimate if the associated CME will be Earth directed. More will be reported when data become available. All the numbered active regions have presently beta configuration of their photospheric magnetic field. We can expect C-class flares in the coming hours while isolated M-class flares are possible but not very probable.
Presently available observations do not show any Earth directed CME.
Two narrow and elongated coronal holes started to cross the central meridian today, one at the Northern and another one at Southern solar hemisphere. The coronal hole at the Northern hemisphere has positive polarity and the one at Southern hemisphere is somewhat smaller and it has negative polarity. The solar wind associated with these coronal holes can be expected at Earth starting from the afternoon of September 13.
Earth is still inside the slow solar wind with the solar wind plasma characteristics fluctuating very little during the last 24 hours. The solar wind velocity remained to be about 330 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 6 nT.
During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were quiet and we expect them to stay so in the coming hours.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels and we do not expect significant change in the coming hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux still fluctuates around the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence is at normal level. We do not expect significant change in the coming hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 191, based on 20 stations.
Wolf number Catania | /// |
10cm solar flux | 161 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 009 |
Estimated Ap | 008 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 144 - Based on 27 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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