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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Sep 18 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Sep 2023	138	011
19 Sep 2023	138	037
20 Sep 2023	138	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are six active regions visible on the disk. Only minor C-class flaring was observed in the last 24 hours. The active regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configuration. More C-class flaring is expected.

Корональні викиди маси

A partial halo CME was detected by LASCO/C2 at 13:25 UTC on 17 September. The source region of the CME is close to the SW limb, there are low chances of seeing a glancing blow at the Earth, or a shock at most, on 21 September.

Корональні діри

The fast solar wind from two small coronal holes may affect the Earth in the next 24-48 hours. One of them has positive polarity and is located in the southern hemisphere (close to the equator), the second one has negative polarity and is located in the northern hemisphere.

Сонячний вітер

The solar wind data at Earth shows the arrival of an ICME, corresponding to the CME on 14 September. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 11 nT with Bz down to -7 nT and solar wind speeds around 430 km/s. Although the effects of this ICME are anticipated to diminish within the next 24 hours, another ICME event, corresponding to the CME from 16 September, is predicted to impact Earth on 19 September, potentially with greater intensity.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions have reached minor storm levels globally (Kp 5) and unsettled locally (K_Bel 3), due to the ICME arrival (from the CME on 14 September). Moderate storm levels (and up to major storm levels) can be expected when the ICME corresponding to the 16 September CME arrives to the Earth in about 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in t

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 125, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	029
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	097 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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