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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Oct 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Oct 2023	146	003
16 Oct 2023	142	004
17 Oct 2023	140	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low and infrequent during the last 24 hours, with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3467 (magnetic configuration Beta) producing the most and the brightest of the flares. The flaring activity is expected to remain low in the next 24 hours, with NOAA AR 3467 and a yet-unnamed AR at N28E88 producing most of the C-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Two CME observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2 yesterday at 04:36 and 16:36 UTC are estimated to be back-sided events.

Сонячний вітер

During the last 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions returned to a typical slow wind regime. The SW speed dropped from a higher value of 520 km/s to 390 km/s and remains low. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) remained up to 5 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -2 and 4 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away and towards the Sun for an approximately equal length of time. The SW conditions are expected to remain in the slow wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 2- to 0+ and K BEL 1 to 2) with the exception of unsettled conditions yesterday between 18:00-21:00 UTC (NOAA Kp 3- and K BEL 3). They are expected to remain quiet in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 101, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	112 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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