Випущено: 2023 Oct 14 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
14 Oct 2023 | 147 | 005 |
15 Oct 2023 | 142 | 008 |
16 Oct 2023 | 140 | 003 |
Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours, with the brightest flare being a C9 today 04:58 UTC from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 87). In total there were only a few C-class flares detected with the yet-unnamed AR at N11E88 producing the largest number of flares. More C-class activity is expected in the next 24 hours.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.
The Solar Wind (SW) conditions are still affected by the arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in 12 Oct. This HSS is consisted of two parts, as can be seen from the rapid increase in SW speed from 400 to 500 km/h yesterday at 21:50 UTC. As a result of this event, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 20 nT to below 5 nT. Its North-South component (Bz) varied between -10 and 20 nT but now ranges between -5 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly directed towards the Sun during the last 24 hours. The SW conditions are expected to remain under the influence of the HSS for the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 2- to 3) during the last 24 hours, with the exception of active conditions (Kp 4-) yesterday 15:00-18:00 UTC. Locally they were at quiet to unsettled levels (K Bell 0-3) throughout the past 24 hours. They are expected to remain quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, both globally and locally.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 19 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 108 |
10cm solar flux | 149 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 019 |
AK Wingst | 015 |
Estimated Ap | 016 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 113 - Based on 17 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Немає |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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