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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Oct 13 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Oct 2023	155	011
14 Oct 2023	151	011
15 Oct 2023	148	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours, with NOAA Active Region (AR) 3451 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 87) and NOAA AR 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 4) producing most of the flares. However, the brightest flare (a C3) was produced by an yet-unnamed AR currently rotating into view at N12. The flaring activity will probably remain low in the next 24 hours, although there is a small chance of an isolated M-class flare since the configuration of the AR at N12E88 cannot be estimated yet.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A partial halo CME automatically detected by CACTus as launched yesterday 17:24 UTC is a back-sided event, thus it is not expected to be geo-effective.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime until the late arrival of the a High Speed Stream (HSS), today at 02:00 UTC. The SW speed varied between 270 km/h and 380 km/h during the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was below 10 nT but has since reached 20 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) was very low but since the arrival of the HSS has varied between -10 and 23 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The effects of the HSS are expected to last for at least the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1- to 1 and K BEL 1-2) until the arrival of the High Speed Stream (HSS) today at 02:00 UTC. They have since increased to unsettled levels both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 3+ and K BEL 3) and they are expected to remain at unsettled to quiet levels for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours. The arrival of the High Speed Stream (HSS) today at 02:00 UTC is predicted to increase the electron flux but it is not expected to exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold level. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours. It is expected to increase in the next 24 hours but remain at low levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 115, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	134
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	142 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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