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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Oct 01 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
01 Oct 2023	160	009
02 Oct 2023	164	012
03 Oct 2023	166	012

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M2.5-flare, with peak time 01:32 UTC on October 01, associated with NOAA AR 3451 (beta-delta), this active region produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk, NOAA AR 3445 has started to rotate off the west limb, NOAA AR 3449 (beta- gamma) and NOAA AR 3450 (beta-gamma) are both stable, all other regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours. A CME was seen erupting towards the east in LASCO-C2 data from 16:10 UTC on October 01 and another was seen erupting towards the south-west in LASCO-C2 data from 18:44 UTC on October 01 both CMEs are determined to be back-sided and are not expected to impact the Earth.

Корональні діри

A positive polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian at the equator.

Сонячний вітер

In the last 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 6 nT. The Bz fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of – 6 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 393 km/s and 444 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active globally (Kp 4) and unsettled locally (K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 went above the 1000 pfu threshold value between 13:15 UTC and 18:30 UTC on October 01. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase above the threshold again in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 152, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Sep 2023

Wolf number Catania	155
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	116 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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