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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Oct 02 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Oct 2023	161	007
03 Oct 2023	161	007
04 Oct 2023	161	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at quiet levels with several C-class flares. There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk, NOAA AR 3445 has started to rotate off the west limb, NOAA AR 3449 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3450 (beta- gamma) are both stable, all other regions have simple alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. The largest flare was a C3.3-flare, with peak time 11:56 UTC on October 02, associated with NOAA AR 3450. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at quiet to moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A positive polarity coronal hole has crossed the central meridian close to the the equator, yesterday on October 01.

Сонячний вітер

In the last 24 hours, the solar wind condition near Earth was stable with the solar wind parameters showing a slow wind speed regime. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 6.7 nT. The Bz-component of the interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of -5.2 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 338 km/s and 450 km/s. The phi-angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours then later some enhancement due to the wins speed associates to the small coronal hole may be observed in the solar wind parameters recorded near Earth.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours manly quiet with some unsettled period locally (Kp-NOAA, and K-Bel = 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold value. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 169, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	155 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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