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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Oct 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Oct 2023	162	004
11 Oct 2023	168	018
12 Oct 2023	175	037

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with an M1 flare detected today 02:09 UTC from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3452 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania group 86). Most of the frequent C-class flaring activity of the past 24 hours was associated with NOAA AR 3460 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania group 4) and NOAA AR 3451 (magnetic configuration Beta-Delta, Catania group 87). More C-class flaring activity is highly expected in the next 24 hours and there is a chance of an isolated M-class flare, from either of the pair of NOAA AR 3451 and 3452.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours, with the exception of a short period of minor disturbance yesterday between 16:00-18:00 UTC. The SW speed varied between 300 km/h and 400 km/h with the exception of the short period mentioned above, when it reached 510 km/h. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was up to 7 nT and its North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominately directed away for the Sun during the past 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause significant disturbance over a few days.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1 to 3+ and K BEL 1 to 3) during the past 24 hours. They are expected to increase to active or minor storm levels in the next 24 hours, as a result of the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive during the next 24 or 48 hours and cause the 2 MeV electron flux to exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold level. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to increase in the next 24 hours but remain at low levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 130, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Oct 2023

Wolf number Catania	179
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	167 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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