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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Nov 06 1251 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Nov 2023	152	022
07 Nov 2023	146	022
08 Nov 2023	142	012

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.6-flare, with peak time 14:32 UTC on November 05, associated with NOAA AR 3480 (beta-gamma). A C9.3 flare with peak time at 21:34 UTC on November 05 was also associated with NOAA AR 3480 (beta-gamma). This region together with NOAA AR 3472, which has rotated over the west limb, have produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Another C9.3 was detected with peak time 03:30 UTC on November 06 and was associated with NOAA AR 3472. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk, NOAA AR 3480 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3477 (beta-gamma) are the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3482 has rotated on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3474 (beta) has started to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Корональні викиди маси

There were multiple filament eruptions and most of these are not expected to impact Earth. One noteworthy filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 near the south-west quadrant of the Sun at 06:58 UTC on November 06. This filament eruption was associated with a CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 07:48 UTC on November 06 with an estimated speed of around 500 km/s. A glancing blow from this CME may be possible. Further analysis is ongoing.

Корональні діри

A large negative coronal hole is continuing to pass the central meridian and a high-speed stream from this coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth late on November 06 or on November 07.

Сонячний вітер

In the last 24 hours, the Earth continues to be under the influence of two ICMEs. In the last 24 hours, the interplanetary magnetic field decreased from 32 nT to 12 nT. The Bz fluctuated between positive and negative values with a minimum value of – 22 nT. The solar wind speed had values varying between 410 km/s and 580 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. Elevated solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours due to the influence of the ICMEs and possible arrival of a high-speed stream.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached major storm levels globally (Kp 7) between 15:00 and 18:00 UT on November 05 and moderate storm levels locally (K Bel 6). Active conditions with possible minor storm condition due to the arrival of a high-speed stream are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background level over the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES-16 was at background levels in the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at background levels in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 073, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	155
AK Chambon La Forêt	100
AK Wingst	053
Estimated Ap	060
Estimated international sunspot number	101 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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