Перегляд архіву четвер, 14 грудня 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2023 Dec 14 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Dec 2023	136	015
15 Dec 2023	138	031
16 Dec 2023	140	027

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity reached moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M5.8 flare, peaking at 07:44 on Dec 14, associated with the NOAA AR 3514 (beta class). Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3513 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3519 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a chance for isolated M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A faint partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 23:36 UTC on December 12, directed towards the North-West from Earth perspective. The coronal mass ejection is likely associated to C2.9 flare from NOAA AR 3514 and a small coronal dimming. Due to the source location it may have an Earth directed component and is expected to arrive from late on Dec 15. Solar coronal dimming was observed on December 14, starting at around 07:33 UTC, associated to M5.8 flare. We are awaiting corresponding coronagraph images to assess any possible Earth directed ejecta.

Сонячний вітер

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed was approximately 330 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was around 7 nT. A small shock-like structure was observed in the solar wind at 21:06 UTC on Dec 13. At this time the speed increased from 330 to 380 km/s and the magnetic field reached the values up to 15 nT. The southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranged between -14 nT and 3 nT. This minor solar wind enhancement indicates the passage of a solar wind structure with an unclear source on the solar disc. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be elevated due to the ICME passage with a chance of a week enhancement on Dec 15-16 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a small positive polarity coronal hole. From late on Dec 15, the shock associated with the partial halo CME of Dec 13 is also expected to arrive.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a single active period registered globally (NOAA-Kp = 4) during the interval 00-06 UTC on Dec 14. Locally only quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated minor storm period on Dec 15-16 with expected high speed stream arrival from a small positive polarity coronal hole and possible CME arrival.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	122
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	035
Estimated international sunspot number	118 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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