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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 10 1233 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Jan 2024	176	010
11 Jan 2024	176	008
12 Jan 2024	174	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C9.6-flare, with peak time at 03:25 UTC on January 10, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta). There are currently 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on disk. Together with NOAA AR 3538, NOAA AR 3539 (beta), and NOAA AR 3546 (beta), it has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

Based on currently available coronagraph images, one partial-halo CME was detected in the past 24 hours (first detection by SOHO/LASCO C2 around 15:12 UTC on January 09). The CME seems to be associated with the eruption of two filaments in the south-east quadrant of the solar disk. No clear Earth-directed component has been identified, and at most we expect a glancing blow in about 4 days. Further analysis to determine any Earth-directed CME component is on-going.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE ranged between 360 km/s and 435 km/s, although we report gaps in the ACE data between 22:10 UTC on January 09 and 00:32 UTC on January 10, and between 02:34 UTC and 07:07 UTC on January 10. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 4 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. The phi-angle remained mainly in the positive sector (away from the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect similar slow solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours due to possible prologued negative Bz conditions in the solar wind.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was still slightly enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold, and it continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days and reach the background level soon. Due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 156, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	202
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	147 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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