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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 06 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Jan 2024	136	008
07 Jan 2024	140	010
08 Jan 2024	144	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C5.2-flare, with peak time 04:50 UTC on January 05, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma) are the most magnetically complex region on disk. NOAA AR 3539 (beta) has emerged in the northeast quadrant of the visible disk. NOAA AR 3540 (beta) and NOAA AR 3541 (beta) have rotated on the visible disk and have been producing C-class flares. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME)s have been observed in the last 24 hours. Further analysis of the CME seen in LASCO C2 data at 02:00 UTC on January 05, shows a possible glancing blow on January 08.

Корональні діри

A positive polarity coronal hole is continuing to pass the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth late on January 06 or on January 07.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, gently declined from around 420 km/s to around 335 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 4 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become perturbed due to the arrival of a high- speed stream associated with a positive polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet (Kp 2) and reached unsettled conditions locally (and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold and continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 148, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	169
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	119 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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