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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 07 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Jan 2024	144	008
08 Jan 2024	146	014
09 Jan 2024	150	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.1-flare, with peak time 15:35 UTC on January 06, associated with NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk, in addition a new active region has rotated over the eastern limb and another active region has emerged near the centre of the solar disk both are yet unnumbered. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma), NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3540 (beta-gamma-delta) are the most magnetically complex region on disk and have produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) has started to rotate over the west limb. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares possible.

Корональні викиди маси

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 15:12 UTC on January 06, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with a filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 in the north-east quadrant of the Sun at 14:50 UTC on January 06. Further analysis is ongoing.

Корональні діри

Two small high latitude positive polarity coronal holes are passing the central meridian. One in the northern half of the Sun and the other in the Southern half. No impact from these coronal holes is expected at Earth.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, appears to decline from around 340 km/s to around 310 km/s but there is a data gap in the ACE data between 21:40 UTC on January 06 and 08:36 UTC on January 07. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 2 nT and 3 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -3 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to become disturbed due to the arrival of a high-speed stream associated with a positive polarity coronal hole and the possible arrival of a CME from January 05.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced but below the 10 pfu threshold and continues to gently decline. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 170, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	141 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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