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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jan 15 1306 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jan 2024	189	010
16 Jan 2024	189	015
17 Jan 2024	189	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C9.6-flare, with a peak time at 11:19 UTC on January 14, associated with NOAA AR 3543. There are currently 12 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3540 (beta-gamma) has become more magnetically complex but does no show any significant flaring activity. NOAA AR 3540 (beta) has been the most active region in the last 24 hours, producing most of the C-flares. All other regions have alpha or beta magnetic field configurations. NOAA AR 3539 has started to rotate off the visible disk, NOAA AR 3539 has decayed. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares and possible M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Based on currently available coronagraph images several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed. Also the SIDC/Cactus tool has automatically detected a halo CME. However the detection seems to be a false detection. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

The small mid-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere (with positive magnetic polarity) is now on the West-side and has finished crossing the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed as measured by DSCOVR ranged between 470 km/s and 490 km/s, but DSCOVR data is marked as suspect while ACE data was unavailable during this period. The total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 4 nT and 7 nT, with the Bz (north-south) component reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. The phi-angle remained in the positive sector (away from the Sun). The equatorial coronal hole (with positive magnetic polarity), which reached the central meridian on January 11, is currently on the geo-effective location. The associated high-speed solar wind stream may reach Earth later today, on January 15.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally and locally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 2). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours with possible periods of active condition due to the arrival of the high-speed solar wind stream associated to the equatorial coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux showed a very slight elevation, following to the C9.6-flare, with peak time at 11:19 UTC on January 14. It is expected to be at background levels in the past 24 hours. Due to the number of complex regions currently on the disk, we cannot exclude the possibility of new proton events in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 145, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	163 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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