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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Feb 11 1314 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Feb 2024	182	024
12 Feb 2024	182	021
13 Feb 2024	180	049

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours. The strongest activity was an M9 flare, start time 22:56 UTC, end time 23:14 UTC, peak time 23:07 UTC on Feb 10th, produced by NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta), which remains the largest, most complex and active region on the visible solar disc. Three new regions were numbered, of which NOAA AR 3583 (beta) starts to show significant flaring activity. The remaining regions are simple and unremarkable. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days with likely M-class flaring and chances for an isolated X-class flare.

Корональні викиди маси

The coronal dimming detected in the AIA images starting around 7:40 UTC on Feb 10th is now related to an C8 flaring from NOAA AR 3576 and a neighbouring filament eruption. An associated wide southward coronal mass ejection (CME) is first visible in the LASCO/C2 imagery starting at 07:00 UTC on Feb 10th. Due to the time overlap with the earlier partial halo CME from the east limb, the true velocity of this eruption is difficult to assess, but current modelling indicates an Earth- directed component with possible arrival late on Feb 12th to early Feb 13th. A fast partial halo CME was detected in the LASCO/C2 imagery around 23:36 UTC on Feb 10th. A huge coronal dimming near the disc center is visible in the SDO/AIA running difference images. The CME is related to an impulsive M9-flare from NOAA AR 3576, which triggered a chain of nearby filament eruptions. It has an estimated velocity above 900 km/s and is expected to have a substantial Earth-directed component with predicted arrival time early on Feb 13th. The CME might catch up and mix with the other CME predicted to arrive late on Feb 12 to early Feb 13th, which could result in a possible earlier arrival. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) have registered another ICME arrival, possibly related to an early arrival of the expected Feb 8th CME. A solar wind shock was detected at 01:20 UTC on Feb 11th. The solar wind speed jumped from 355 km/s to 440 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field quickly increased from 4 nT to 16 nT and soon after reached a maximum of 19 nT. The solar wind velocity has since increased to about 580 km/s. The solar wind conditions are expected to be remain perturbed throughout Feb 11th. Further enhancements in the solar wind parameters are expected late on Feb 12th and Feb 13th due to the anticipated arrival of two other ICMEs.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet to active with an isolated minor storm level registered in Belgium between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC on Feb 11th. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for Feb 11th with possible isolated minor storms. Quiet to active conditions are expected for the first half of Feb 12th and periods of minor to major storm levels are expected over the night of Feb 12th and on Feb 13th with anticipated two ICME arrivals.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux started at moderate radiation storm levels with values above 100 pfu and has declined to minor radiation storm levels around 04:00 UTC on Feb 11th. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to remain at minor radiation storm levels on Feb 11th and, in case of no new triggers, decline towards nominal levels by the end of Feb 12th.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days.The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 147, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	194
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	151 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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