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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Mar 09 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Mar 2024	127	019
10 Mar 2024	126	012
11 Mar 2024	125	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with few C-class flares and a M-class flare. These flares were mostly produced by the NOAA Active Region (AR) 3599. The strongest reported flare was GOES M1.3 flare which peaked at 21:26 UTC on Mar 08. During the flare, the source region (AR 3599) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with several C-class flares, and a chance for M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A narrow coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 12:12 UTC on Mar 08. It was associated with a filament eruption on the NE quadrant, and this CME is not expected to impact the Earth. Another partial CME was first observed in LASCO-C2 images at 05:12 UTC on Mar 09. It is associated with a prominence eruption (about 03:24 UTC) on the SE limb. It has a projected speed of 1562 km/s and a projected width of 130 degree (as measured by Cactus tool). Due to the main propagation direction of the CME being strongly south east from the Sun- Earth line, the CME-flank encounter is not possible at Earth but glancing blow cannot be excluded. Further analysis is going-on to investigate if this CME has Earth directed components. No other Earth directed component of CME has been identified in the available coronograph imagery.

Корональні діри

A narrow (positive polarity) coronal hole, spanning 15 - 30 N, is approaching the central meridian on Mar 09. The solar wind from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Mar 12.

Сонячний вітер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were still under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Mar 06. The solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s to 540 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect a gradual transition from fast to slow solar wind unless the shock driven by coronal mass ejection (CME), which was observed at 21:24 UTC on Mar 05, arrives later than expected at Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to active conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 4) due to the continuous impact of high speed streams from the equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on Mar 06. In the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions may be expected if the shock driven by coronal mass ejection (CME), which was observed at 21:24 UTC on Mar 5, arrives later than expected at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	119
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	097 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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