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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Apr 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Apr 2024	156	010
14 Apr 2024	161	020
15 Apr 2024	166	023

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M2.4 close to the east solar limb peaking at 05:02 UTC. It was likely associated with a new active region (NOAA AR 3637), currently rotating on disk. There are currently five active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3638 is also rotating on disc from the south- east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares probable and a small chance of M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and SOHO/LASCO-C3 starting from 02:30 UTC on April 12th. It is probably associated with the filament eruption observed in SDO/AIA 304 data at 01:10 UTC on April 12th. It is expected to arrive early on April 15th. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 376 km/s to 459 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 3 nT to 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -3 nT and 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Possible enhancements in the solar wind speed, due to a glancing blow from the CME observed on Aprill 11th may be expected over the next 24 hours. Further enhancements can be expected from April 14th due to the impact of the CME observed on April 12th.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL from 0 to 2). Quiet conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Active to minor storm conditions are expected from April 14th due to the impact of the CMEs.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 120, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Apr 2024

Wolf number Catania	084
10cm solar flux	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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