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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Apr 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Apr 2024	167	014
15 Apr 2024	173	030
16 Apr 2024	178	014

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been moderate, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M4.3 associated with NOAA AR 3637 (beta) peaking at 02:32 UTC. There are currently eight active regions on the solar disk. Two new active regions (NOAA AR 3639 and NOAA AR 3640) are currently rotating on disk from the north-east limb. NOAA AR 3641 has emerged in the north-east quadrant. NOAA AR 3628 is currently rotating onto the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and a chance of M-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A faint Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the north was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 around 18:30 UTC on April 13th. It is probably associated with a C5.5 flare from NOAA AR 3634. Preliminary analysis shows that it will not impact the Earth. Further analysis is ongoing. A CME from the north-west limb was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 and SOHO/LASCO-C3 starting from 03:50 UTC on April 14th. It is possibly related to a prominence eruption on the west limb. It is not expected to impact the Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

The Earth is inside the slow solar wind, with speed values ranging from 300 km/s to 430 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. The Bz component varied between -4.5 nT and 4.8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector. Possible enhancements in the solar wind speed, due to the impact of the CMEs observed on Aprill 11th and April 12th may be expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp from 0 to 2). Geomagnetic conditions were locally at unsettled levels (K BEL from 0 to 3). Minor storm conditions are expected over the next 24 hours due to the impact of the partial halo CME observed on April 12th.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 140, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Apr 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	119 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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