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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jun 19 1248 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jun 2024	197	017
20 Jun 2024	197	017
21 Jun 2024	197	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and M-class flares. Two M-class flares originated from NOAA active region 3712: M2.4 flare, which peaked at 11:23 UTC on June 18 and M1.2 flare, which peaked at 12:20 UTC on June 18. A Third M1.2 flare, which peaked at 06:36 UTC on June 19, originated from NOAA active region 3711. There are currently several sunspot groups on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3711 and 3712 showing the most flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Several coronal mass ejections (CME) were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images. Their sources were located on the far side of the Sun, or from a filament in the north-east of the sun. No Earth- directed component was identified for those CMEs.

Корональні діри

A large north mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is crossing the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

Solar wind conditions were enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed range around 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field decreases from around 10 nT to 6 nT and the Bz component varied between -5 nT and 4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated for the next days. The high-speed stream from the large north mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is expected to reach Earth in one-two days.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3, K BEL 3) due to the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Then in about one-two days, active conditions to minor storm may be observed in response of the high-speed stream from the large north midlatitude north coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours mild elevation may be observed in response of the fast solar wind condition. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 151, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	193
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	133 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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