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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jun 18 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Jun 2024	180	017
19 Jun 2024	180	010
20 Jun 2024	180	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with multiple C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M1.4 flare, which began at 19:57 UTC and peaked at 20:35 UTC on June 17, and originating from NOAA active region 3711. The most complex sunspot region NOAA-AR 3712 (beta-gamma- delta) produced several C-class flare. There are currently several sunspot groups on the solar disk, with NOAA AR 3711 and 3712 (beta-gamma-delta) showing the most flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable and a small chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 11:00 UTC on June 17, with a projected speed ranging from 500 km/s to 700 km/s. This halo-CME was likely due to several CMEs occurring simultaneously. The CME directed southwest is associated with the M1.6 flare from NOAA active region 3712, which peaked at 10:46 UTC on June 17. The other parts of the halo CME appear to be on the far side of the Sun. Given the position of NOAA active region 3712 near the central meridian, and the south-southwest direction of the CME we expect at most an glacing glow reaching Earth, with relatively minor impact on Earth on Jun 20-21. Later, on June 17 at approximately 20:20 UTC another halo CME was observed by SOHO/LASCO-C2. This event likely resulted also from multiple CMEs erupting simultaneously. The southwest-directed part is associated with the M1.4 flare, which began at 19:57 UTC and peaked at 20:35 UTC on June 17, originating from NOAA active region 3711. The other component of the halo CME is believed to be on the far side of the Sun. Given NOAA active region 3711's position at longitude 56 on the west side, the associated westward CME is not expected to have an Earth-directed component.

Корональні діри

A large north mid-latitude north coronal hole with negative polarity is crossing the central meridian.

Сонячний вітер

Solar wind conditions were enhanced in the last 24 hours due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind speed increase up to 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was around 11 nT and the Bz component varied between -10.4 nT and 9.4 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected remain elevated for the following days.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 4) due to the expected arrival of the high-speed stream from the equatorial, positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly nsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level and decrease over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 144, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Jun 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	180
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	140 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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