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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Jul 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jul 2024	229	008
16 Jul 2024	225	010
17 Jul 2024	220	003

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate during the last 24 hours with three M-class flares detected during the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3738 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma- Delta, Catania sunspot group 85) produced all of the M-class flaring activity (namely an M1.0 at 14 Jul 20:57 UTC, an M1.2 at 15 Jul 03:35 UTC, and an M2.7 at 15 Jul 09:37 UTC) and most of the C-class flares. Bright C-class flares were also produced by NOAA AR 3751 (a C7 at 14 Jul 21:26 UTC) and NOAA AR 3744 (a C8 at 14 Jul 21:58 UTC). Further M-class flaring activity is expected from NOAA AR 3738 with a small chance of an X-flare in the next 24 hours.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Корональні діри

A northern Coronal Hole (CH) with negative polarity stared crossing the central meridian during the past 24 hours. An associated High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective on 18 Jul.

Сонячний вітер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 270 and 330 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -3 and 4 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was mostly directed away from the Sun in the past 24 hours. A high speed stream related to a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on July 10 is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2), while locally they had a brief period of unsettled conditions (K BEL 1-3) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to continue at quiet levels and possibly rise to unsettled levels due to the expected arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so, although there is a small chance of a proton event in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 240, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jul 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	234
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	220 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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