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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Aug 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Aug 2024	234	007
27 Aug 2024	234	024
28 Aug 2024	236	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels, with multiple C-class flares observed. The largest flares were two C9.0 flares, peaking at 08:09 UTC and 11:20 UTC on August 26, both associated with NOAA AR 3796 (beta-gamma class). Currently, there are 12 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3794 (beta class) is rotating over the west limb, while NOAA AR 3796 has been the primary driver of recent flaring activity, alongside NOAA AR 3794 and NOAA AR 3800 (beta-gamma class).Two new active regions (NOAA ARs 3803 and 3804) are rotating into the visible side of the Sun are expected to be the additional sources of the flaring activity in the next days. Solar flaring activity is expected to reach moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable, and a small chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Корональні діри

A small positive polarity low-latitude coronal hole has crossed the central meridian today, on August 26.

Сонячний вітер

Slow solar wind conditions were observed over the past 24 hours.The solar wind speed gradually decreased from the values about 340 km/s to the values around 295 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained below 5 nT, with the Bz component fluctuating between -4 and 4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over the next few days, with a chance of a weak enhancement starting late on August 26, due to a possible glancing blow from the August 23 CME.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet (NOAA Kp = 1-2). Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active conditions due to the possible glancing blow of the August 23 CME.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 210, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	233
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	211 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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