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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Aug 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Aug 2024	229	021
28 Aug 2024	227	017
29 Aug 2024	225	021

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours reached moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares being detected. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare, peaking at 09:43 UTC on August 27, associated with NOAA AR 3796 (beta-gamma class). Currently, there are 11 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3796, which has grown in size, was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3800 (beta-gamma class) and NOAA AR 3801 (beta-gamma class). NOAA AR 3790 (beta-gamma), which remained quiet, is now approaching the Western limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares probable, and a small chance of X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A streamer-blowout coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at 12:48 UTC on August 26. The CME is directed primarily to the South from the Earth's perspective. No clear Earth-directed component has been identified. However, further analysis is on-going. No other Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Сонячний вітер

In the past 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions followed by the arrival of an interplanetary structure, most likely related to a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) from August 23, were observed. Between 12:00 UTC on August 26 and 07:32 UTC on August 27, the solar wind remained between 250 km/s and 290 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field was below 5 nT. Around 07:32 UTC on August 27, a fast forward shock was detected in the solar wind data (DSCOVR and ACE), leading to jumps in the magnetic field strength (from 2 nT to 5 nT), solar wind speed (from 250 km/s to 316 km/s), density, and temperature. Following the shock, the magnetic field continued to increase and reached 12 nT, while the magnetic field Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum of -7 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated due to the ICME passage with a chance of a further weak enhancement late on August 28 - August 29 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that started to cross the central meridian on August 25.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to unsettled levels (Kp 1 - 3) in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with chances for isolated active conditions in relation to the passage of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, with possible enhancements in case of increased solar activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 178, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	203
10cm solar flux	232
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	213 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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