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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Sep 06 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Sep 2024	235	007
07 Sep 2024	235	011
08 Sep 2024	235	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare. The strongest was an M1.3 flare from NOAA active region (AR) 3807, which peaked at 13:25 UTC on September 5. NOAA AR 3806, AR 3807, and AR 3813 remain complex regions on the disk, showing a beta-gamma magnetic field configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain moderate over the next 24 hours, with the possibility of a few M-class flares and a chance of isolated X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph images at 06:12 UTC on September 5. The projected speed is estimated to be about 600-700 km/s. This eruption is believed to be directed towards the far side of the Sun, as no source region could be identified on the visible disk.

Корональні діри

A small negative polarity coronal hole (CH), spanning 30-50 degrees S, crossed the central meridian on September 3. The associated high-speed stream from this CH may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth between September 6-7. Additionally, another small positive polarity CH, spanning 25-35 degrees N, started crossing the central meridian on September 2. The high-speed stream from this CH is expected to impact Earth around September 7-8.

Сонячний вітер

Solar wind conditions have now returned to a slow-speed regime. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was below 8.5 nT, with the southward component (Bz) remaining mostly positive, above +6 nT. Solar wind speeds fluctuated around 400 km/s. These conditions are expected to remain stable today, with possible intensification tomorrow due to the September 3 coronal mass ejection combine with the high-speed stream from the coronal hole that crossed the central meridian on September 3.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet both globally and locally, with NOAA Kp and K-Dourbes indices between 1-2. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remains slightly elevated but below the 10 pfu threshold. It is expected to return to background levels in the coming days, though there is a small chance of exceeding the threshold if high-energy flares or eruptions occur.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to continue at this level for the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is expected to remain stable.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 187, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	241
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	181 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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