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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2024 Oct 03 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Oct 2024	300	010
04 Oct 2024	290	046
05 Oct 2024	290	033

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and 7 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 2200) peaking on October 02 at 20:51 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Regions 3823, 3842). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 257; AR 3823, 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC 257 currently located at S15 E06 has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Корональні викиди маси

Further analysis of a coronal mass ejections (CME), detected at 23:12 UTC on Oct 01 in LASCO C2 data with a projected speed of 600 km/s and a projected width of 119 degree, shows a possible impact at Earth on Oct 04-05. This CME was associated with an X7.1 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3842, S16 E16), which peaked at 22:20 UTC on Oct 01, and the EUV wave. Associated type II radio emissions were also detected at 22:17 UTC on Oct 01. Another CME was first observed on coronograph images around 08:34 UTC on Oct 03. This was associated to a filament eruption on the NW quadrant of the Sun, and also possibly associated with the flaring activities from the SIDC 277 (NOAA AR 3848). The analysis of presently available coronograph images shows that this CME has a projected width of about 100 deg and a projected speed of about 525 km/s. With the bulk of the mass strongly directed towards NE limb, this CME will miss Earth, but a glancing blow related to the shock may be possible on Oct 06. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Сонячний вітер

Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 300 km/s to 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, unless the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01 arrives earlier than expected.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1 to 2) and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (K_BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, unless the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01 arrives earlier than expected.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 224, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	274
10cm solar flux	275
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	219 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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